2018 Bantam Draft – Older is Better

in Other News

 

 

May 5, 2018

It’s become an annual ritual now – to see how the WHL Bantam Draft breaks down according to month of birth and size (weight), round by round.

Clearly at the bantam age there is a wide range of size with boys. Many 15 year boys have shot up, hit puberty, and have starting bulking up, while others are still waiting for the juice to kick in.

In a physically demanding sport such the WHL, where rookies have to compete against much older, more mature players, size matters – and maybe more than talent in many cases – assuming natural talent has no relation to month of birth, of course.

The chart below breaks out this year’s picks by month of birth and weight, which gives some idea how much of an impact physical maturity has on player development.

This year, January was again the big winner accounting for 17.4% of all picks (39), while December was again the big loser with 0.9% of picks (2).

April was second with 14.3% (32). February, March and May were all close, with 24, 26, and 24 picks respectively.

The first five months accounted for 64.7% of draft picks.

Conversely, October, November and December just 7.6% of picks.

In terms of impact per round, the numbers skew even more towards the older player being chosen first.

72.7% of first rounders were born in the first five months of the year. Stretch that out to the first six months, and the effect is even more pronounced. Only first rounders were selected with birthdates after the end of June.

The trend continues through each round, with rounds two and three coming in at the same 72.7% January to May percentage, and round four jumping to 77.3%.

It follows that first picks are going to be larger physically as well. In terms of body weight, the largest segment of draft picks, 43.7%, are in the 150-169 lb range. About 21% are in the 170-189 range, and about 26% are between 130-149.

However, in terms of first rounders, 82% are plus 160 lbs, with most in the 160-169 range. Only 50% of second rounders are plus 160; 45.5 % of third rounders and 36.4% of fourth rounders.

 

2018 WHL Draft Picks by Month of Birth

MOB: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Tot 1st 5 m 1st 6 m
R1 4 1 0 6 5 4 0 0 2 0 0 0 22 72.7% 90.9%
R2 5 4 1 2 4 0 1 0 2 1 2 0 22 72.7% 72.7%
R3 6 5 2 2 1 1 2 1 0 0 2 0 22 72.7% 77.3%
R4 5 3 4 2 3 0 1 1 1 2 0 0 22 77.3% 77.3%
R5 3 4 3 3 2 0 0 2 3 0 1 1 22 68.2% 68.2%
R6 3 2 3 5 2 1 3 0 1 1 1 0 22 68.2% 72.7%
R7 1 2 2 4 1 4 1 2 3 1 1 0 22 45.5% 63.6%
R8 4 2 4 5 2 0 1 2 1 0 0 1 22 77.3% 77.3%
R9 3 3 3 2 4 0 1 2 2 2 0 0 22 68.2% 68.2%
R10 0 4 0 0 0 2 4 1 0 0 0 0 11 36.4% 54.5%
R11 0 0 1 1 2 1 0 1 0 1 0 0 7 57.1% 71.4%
R12 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0.0% 0.0%
R13 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 100.0% 100.0%
TOTALS 34 31 23 32 26 13 15 12 15 8 7 2 218 67.0% 72.9%
15.6% 14.2% 10.6% 14.7% 11.9% 6.0% 6.9% 5.5% 6.9% 3.7% 3.2% 0.9%
Quarter 40.4% 32.6% 19.3% 7.8%
Half 72.9% 27.1%

 

2018 WHL Draft Picks by Weight by Round

WEIGHT R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 R11 R12-13 Tot % tot
+220 1 1 0.45%
210-220 1 1 0.45%
200-209 1 1 2 0.90%
190-199 1 1 1 1 4 1.80%
180-189 3 4 1 2 2 4 1 17 7.66%
170-179 5 3 2 2 4 1 2 6 1 1 2 29 13.06%
160-169 8 3 5 4 5 6 7 5 4 2 1 50 22.52%
150-159 1 7 4 8 3 3 5 5 5 5 1 47 21.17%
140-149 1 3 4 3 3 4 5 3 3 3 3 35 15.77%
130-139 2 3 2 4 2 2 1 6 1 23 10.36%
120-129 1 1 1 1 1 5 2.25%
110-119 0 0.00%
Unknown 1 1 7 3 1 8 3.60%
TOTALS 22 22 22 22 22 22 28 22 20 16 6 3 222
Over 160 81.8% 50.0% 45.5% 36.4% 50.0% 54.5% 40.9% 54.5% 22.7% 22.7% 13.6% 0.0%
Over 170 45.5% 36.4% 22.7% 18.2% 27.3% 27.3% 9.1% 31.8% 4.5% 13.6% 9.1% 0.0%